Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and articulated exactly these risks as part of his work over recent years. He joins the podcast to discuss the trends in US political risk and the strength of its institutions, translating how they compare to other developed and emerging economies and whether further accounting for these risks in market pricing is warranted.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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33:52
Alberto Cavallo: Tracking the Price Impacts of US Tariffs
As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his work in measuring inflation trends past and present. Alberto and his colleagues have already written new, ground-breaking research into the effects that the Liberation Day tariffs are having on retail prices and he offers helpful context in how to understand better the timing and scale of the inflation trends that look most likely to emerge in their wake.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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32:21
Bear With Us? Talking Markets Amidst the Maelstrom
Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bonds and currencies have run their course, or if they were preludes to upsets to come. The trade discussion is sure to roll on for the next several months and fiscal policy dynamics are likely to evolve in ways markets must consider. The key question is whether the repricing thus far across assets is sufficient. This week, Street Signals changes its format to discuss these questions, as a roundtable of three senior members of the Macro Strategy Team talk about their current thinking and how outlooks have changed. Dan Gerard and Marvin Loh join from the team in Boston and your host, Tim Graf, sheds his usual agnostic stance in adding to the debate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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41:44
Tariffs: The Price Is Fright
Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors joins the podcast this week, offering a robust framework for assessing the negotiability and sustainability of tariffs, as well as the long-term implications for asset and FX markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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34:20
Trading Around Trade: A Risk Manager's Perspective
By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of proposed tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. Of course, if the last three months are any guide, all such news on trade is subject to negotiation and compromise. Having had to deal with a barrage of ever-evolving headlines since the start of 2025, Dan Mazza, head of FX Forwards trading in the Americas, joins the podcast, to discuss how the market-making function has evolved in response, whether and where it makes sense to position for further trade-related disruption in FX and interest rate markets and how long-lasting he expects the effects of protectionism to last as a meaningful market driver.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Global Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Global Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.
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