Yet Another Value Podcast

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Marcelo Lima of Heller House Capital about the "SaaSpocalypse". Marcelo shares his perspective from years of following software companies, arguing that fears around AI disrupting SaaS are overblown. They examine whether AI tools threaten incumbents like Salesforce or instead strengthen them through faster product development. The discussion covers valuation compression, enterprise software moats, customer behavior shifts, and the role of AI as infrastructure. Andrew also raises concerns about disruption risks, insider signals, and workforce changes, leading to a debate on whether this moment represents risk or opportunity.
Marcelo's memos on software
Memo 1: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software
Memo 2: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software-part-ii
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[00:00:00] Introduction and SaaS apocalypse topic
[00:02:24] Disclaimer and setup discussion
[00:03:26] SaaS selloff and market reaction
[00:07:58] AI disruption concerns raised
[00:10:09] Valuation compression and risk pricing
[00:14:24] Salesforce adoption timing shifts
[00:16:09] Incumbents’ advantage and feedback loops
[00:20:57] Headless software and interface changes
[00:22:29] Backend value versus frontend control
[00:27:02] Historical analogy with Slack usage
[00:29:22] Insider buying skepticism discussion
[00:34:36] Power law dynamics in SaaS
[00:35:53] Company earnings and AI impact
[00:36:36] Adobe Lightroom AI example
[00:40:11] Bloomberg replacement with AI tools
[00:42:25] AI tooling limitations and costs
[00:46:02] Bugs and reliability challenges
[00:47:24] Preferred SaaS companies discussed
[00:51:28] Stock compensation and dilution concerns
[00:55:59] AI productivity and hiring dynamics
[00:56:27] Opposing view on engineer demand
[00:59:16] AI increasing work intensity
[01:00:23] Enterprise software reliability moat
[01:04:49] AI as infrastructure layer
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings’ business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.
You can see Tolu's DKNG write up here
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[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview
[00:00:33] DraftKings and prediction markets focus
[00:03:21] DraftKings business and history explained
[00:05:26] Prediction markets model and mechanics
[00:07:33] Market reaction and investor behavior
[00:09:14] iGaming growth and profitability discussion
[00:11:09] iGaming competition and market structure
[00:14:55] DraftKings execution and product strengths
[00:16:02] Prediction markets as key risk
[00:17:34] Product appeal and investor bias
[00:18:57] Betfair comparison and market share
[00:20:20] Cultural shifts and trading behavior
[00:22:12] Early impact on sportsbook data
[00:23:12] Market share uncertainty discussion
[00:24:38] Government incentives and regulation
[00:26:25] Why Betfair remained small
[00:29:31] Pricing differences and fee structure
[00:31:32] Complexity of sportsbook operations
[00:32:38] Regulatory advantages of prediction markets
[00:34:43] Insider trading and integrity concerns
[00:37:04] Legal paths and regulatory outcomes
[00:39:17] CFTC role and enforcement issues
[00:41:37] Timing risks and market share shift
[00:42:56] Long-term investment thesis
[00:44:23] Valuation framework and upside case
[00:48:40] DraftKings competing in prediction markets
[00:49:55] Parlay economics and profitability
[00:51:24] Regulatory risks beyond prediction markets
[00:53:30] Government incentives and taxation
[00:54:24] Supreme Court outlook and legal stance
[00:55:56] Native American tribes involvement
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his April monthly ramblings, covering a range of investing topics top of mind. He examines the recent selloff in SaaS companies and why they may not be as attractive as they appear. Andrew explores the idea of hedging against AI disruption using large-cap tech options, while also questioning how AI and pattern recognition could reshape investing. He reflects on the balance between experience and laziness in decision-making and closes with a personal discussion on the mental challenges of missing major investment opportunities.
Check out fiscal.ai here: fiscal.ai/?via=yav
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[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and monthly ramblings
[00:01:02] Call for ratings and subscriptions
[00:01:37] Sponsor discussion and product usage
[00:02:40] Overview of April discussion topics
[00:04:35] SaaS selloff and valuation concerns
[00:07:10] AI impact on SaaS demand
[00:08:03] Software terminal value concerns
[00:08:54] SaaS as difficult investment category
[00:10:16] Importance of differentiated investment edge
[00:12:09] AI risks to investing careers
[00:13:32] Idea of hedging AI exposure
[00:14:29] Meta stock option implications
[00:15:54] Rationale for big tech hedges
[00:17:18] Thoughts on leap options strategy
[00:18:33] Pattern recognition in investing
[00:20:09] When pattern recognition becomes harmful
[00:21:35] Balancing experience versus laziness
[00:22:21] AI and pattern recognition limitations
[00:23:33] Market adaptation to investor behavior
[00:25:08] Potential AI investing weaknesses
[00:26:48] Using AI tools in research
[00:28:36] Emotional challenges in investing
[00:29:18] Missed Avis investment opportunity
[00:30:24] Frustration from missed gains
[00:31:08] Balancing emotions and discipline
[00:32:28] Closing remarks and sign-off
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Jingshu Zhang from Guinea Value about Fiserv (FISV) and the broader payments sector. They examine the recent drawdown across payment companies, addressing concerns around AI disruption, regulation, and macro pressures. Jingshu outlines Fiserv’s business structure across financial institutions and merchant solutions, while detailing the impact of leadership changes and operational missteps under prior management. The discussion highlights the ongoing strategic reset, new executive hires from JPMorgan, and extensive on-the-ground research into Clover’s positioning. They also debate capital allocation, insider alignment, activist involvement, and valuation, exploring whether Fiserv represents a turnaround opportunity or a declining legacy asset.
See Shu's substack here: https://jingshu.substack.com/
See Trata's FISV transcript here: https://www.trata.com/fisv
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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest background
[00:03:56] Payments sector under broad pressure
[00:05:32] Market fears impacting payment companies[00:06:51] AI risks debated in payments
[00:11:38] Structural advantages protect payment networks
[00:12:49] Capital allocation concerns across peers
[00:17:19] Fiserv business segments overview
[00:18:59] Leadership change and prior mismanagement
[00:24:23] Strategic reset and growth normalization
[00:27:49] Variant perception and investment thesis
[00:28:50] New executive team and talent inflow
[00:34:55] Clover positioning versus competitors
[00:36:20] Field research from restaurant interviews
[00:42:01] Valuation framework and earnings outlook
[00:46:14] Insider alignment and incentives discussion
[00:53:34] Organizational culture and employee sentiment
[00:58:30] Activist involvement and strategic options
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Sean Emory of Avory & Co analyzes Clear Security, a biometric identity platform operating in airports nationwide. They examine the company’s subscription model, competitive positioning against TSA and airlines, and the impact of recent TSA disruptions on demand. The discussion covers Clear’s pricing power, partnerships with credit card providers like Amex, and the durability of its airport footprint. Sean also outlines a developing enterprise identity segment and its potential role in future growth. The conversation addresses valuation, risks, and whether Clear’s moat can sustain long-term returns. ___________________________________________________________________
[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Clear Security debate
[00:03:54] Clear explained: biometric airport platform
[00:07:11] Growth limits and line congestion[
00:10:00] TSA PreCheck economics and strategy
[00:14:04] Competition from TSA and airlines
[00:18:15] Airport partnerships and revenue sharing
[00:23:12] Market missing enterprise identity opportunity
[00:28:48] Debate on enterprise business significance
[00:34:11] TSA disruption impact on stock
[00:39:36] Valuation and growth assumptions
[00:43:24] Pricing power and customer behavior
[00:49:21] Amex partnership risks and dynamics
[00:56:12] Capital allocation and cash usage
[01:00:56] Long-term identity and AI implications
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/