Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar
01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust
06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency
10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity
12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update
16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds
19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer
21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk
25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process
29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate
31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following
38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated?
43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following
51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets
58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity
01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 2020
01:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followers
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marvin on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else
01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth
04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve
09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?
16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean
18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy
25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?
31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system
35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy?
40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality
47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits
57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations
59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt
01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets
01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar
01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters
07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question
08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention
12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed
16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply
18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?
22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning
24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function
30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields
34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime
41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime
49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification
52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns
01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch next
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors
01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing
06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional
10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets
13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market
14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history
18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles
23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market?
28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven
29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters
32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines
34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm
39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work
42:33 - Why investors have never had it better
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections
01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets
07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk
10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes
13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks
14:51 - August trend following performance
16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends
20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity
27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?
31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market
36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage
41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset?
47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following
52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers
56:49 - The “podification” of trend following
59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles
01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative trading
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer