Top Traders Unplugged

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage’ opportunities in markets really a free lunch?
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Alex on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price
01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas
03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics
08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money
10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control
15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality
17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail
22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion
25:18 - The winner’s curse and common value auctions
30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding
33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing
36:50...

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome
01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026
03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation
07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets
09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention
10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following
12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025
15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year
18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design
23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead
31:08 - Institutional views on trend following
40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research
50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis...

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he traces how repeated “software crashes” of capitalism produced inflation, austerity, populism and now a return to industrial policy and great power confrontation. He connects deficits, demographics, migration, and housing with the lived reality of stagnant wages and rising prices. Along the way, he questions central bank mythology, challenges deficit obsession, and asks whether politics can adapt before events force a far harsher reset.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Cold open and warning on a return to 19th century style imperialism
00:23 - Niels and Alan introduce Mark Blyth and set the macro context
02:24 - From Scottish childhood to monetarism and the politics of macro ideas
08:33 - Capitalism as hardware and software and the recurring crashes of each regime
15:32 - The slow death of neoliberalism and the rise of populist reactions
18:57 - Deficits, austerity, bond vigilantes and why the house is on fire anyway
23:49 - Affordability, grocery prices, housing and the disconnect in elite dashboards
29:02 - Generational conflict, asset concentration and the missing left...

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and the start of 2026
03:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following
08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist
12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning
14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery
17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following
23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking
28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now
40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden
49:54 - Prediction versus participation
53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility
01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control
01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking ahead
Copyright © 2025

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today’s stability masks a far more dangerous future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow William on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time
01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime
03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure
07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support
12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences
13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis
18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability
19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks
26:40 - What happens when...