FICC Focus

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited, discuss the US dollar outlook into 2H. They acknowledge the return of economics and yields as key FX drivers which implies that dollar strength may be the path of least resistance, at least in 3Q, and for as long as US economic exceptionalism dominates. Win and Audrey also share respective views on Fed policy, with low market conviction in the debate about rate cuts vs. rate hikes associated with low conviction about the near-term dollar view. Dollar-yen and FX views outside the dollar box, including EMFX, are also part of Win and Audrey’s discussion.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Credit and high yield recovered all losses due to the Iran war in 2Q. Will 3Q keep delivering gains, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 3Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with David Fancourt, High Yield Fund Manager at M&G Investments. They discuss valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. This podcast also covers survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“When you just think about the distribution of outcomes on corporate bonds from these levels of spreads, the cost of getting a few of them wrong can wipe out a quarter, or even a year of alpha in these sort of lower-return opportunity type environments,” says Connor Fitzgerald, fixed income portfolio manager for Wellington Management. Fitzgerald joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast and discusses his cautious but constructive credit view, with spreads offering limited compensation for risk, particularly in investment grade (IG). The two talk defensive positioning, disciplined security selection, positive convexity and patience for better entry points to drive alpha, as well as longer-term IG supports including demographics and higher yields. AI-driven corporate capex funding and potential investor indigestion, fiscal dominance and balancing bottom-up and top-down views are also discussed.

Global credit markets swung through war and peace, making strategic insights essential for the second half of the year. Bloomberg Intelligence’s credit strategists have their sights set on 2H, but what do their outlooks hold? In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts BI’s global credit strategy team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Reto Bachmann (structured credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share their outlooks and the key themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington joins Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the latest moves from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and global rate markets. Worthington explains why the ECB’s recent rate hike may already look too aggressive now that oil and gas prices have fallen back, and why the market may be overpricing further tightening if euro-area inflation undershoots target in 2027 and 2028. The two also examine why Europe’s growth backdrop remains weaker than the US, how the ECB’s single inflation mandate differs from the Fed’s broader framework, and why those differences matter for yield curves and market pricing. They also discuss the UK gilt market, including the impact of political turnover, fiscal constraints and leadership changes on long-end yields, as well as the outlook for peripheral spreads in Europe. The episode closes with a look at anomalies in US SOFR curve pricing, including why Bloomberg Intelligence sees current expectations for multiple Fed hikes, followed quickly by cuts, as difficult to justify.