Run the Numbers

On this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down Jersey Mike’s S-1 and the franchise machine behind more than $4 billion in sandwich sales. He explains how an asset-light royalty model works, why franchise economics can be so powerful, what Blackstone saw in the business, and what the filing reveals about growth, margins, and the real money behind the subs.
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SPONSORS:
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.com
Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at Pulley.com/mostlymetrics
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer cut their close in half, took audit findings from seven to zero, and cut back-office costs by 70% in six months. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at maximor.ai
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at anrok.com/rtn
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Sell $4B in subs, own none of the stores
0:33 Origin story: Peter Cancro buys a sub shop at 17
1:47 It's a royalty business
2:42 Key metrics
6:07 What you're actually buying
6:42 The three revenue streams
7:19 The franchisee's P&L
10:00 Sponsors — RightRev | Pulley | Rillet
13:02 Corporate P&L: 47% EBITDA margins
13:33 The Blackstone math
14:38 $2.1B whole business securitization
15:09 Full EBITDA bridge
16:00 The CEO buying back the 2%
17:10 Red flag 1: Up-C structure
18:11 Red flag 2: tax receivable agreement
18:45 Red flag 3: controlled company governance
19:05 Red flag 4: sponsor already took $500M
19:29 Red flag 5: charitable donations added back
20:13 Red flag 6: cheap debt maturing in 2029
20:52 Sponsors — Maximor | Brex | Anrok
23:56 Valuation: $10–12B
24:32 Peer comparison
25:27 How do you underwrite $12B?
25:58 Misc: quantum attack on the provolone
26:28 The hidden 53rd week
26:57 No drive-thru is a feature
27:13 Verdict
27:56 Credits
#RunTheNumbersPodcast #IPO #Investing #BusinessStrategy #FinanceLeadership

What actually prepares someone to become a CFO? CJ revisits Erin Callan’s short, brutal run as Lehman Brothers CFO and pulls lessons from past guests on operational reps, simple communication, fast-moving bad news, budget mistakes, and why great finance leaders can’t just report the numbers, they have to shape them.
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SPONSORS:
Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at anrok.com/rtn
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.com
Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at Pulley.com/mostlymetrics
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer cut their close in half, took audit findings from seven to zero, and cut back-office costs by 70% in six months. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at maximor.ai
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/
Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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RELATED EPISODES:
Steve Isom
https://youtu.be/a4lEdrgFW5E
Jake Kornreich
https://youtu.be/GKo0B1w4bo4
Manu Diwakar
https://youtu.be/J0J4Rfne54E
Dan Bettes
https://youtu.be/b4w_OHpSNNw
Alan Imberman
https://youtu.be/UD9lYhkfA6U
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Erin Callan: Lehman's CFO Set up to Fail
5:48 Steve Isom: broadcaster vs. team captain
9:37 Be in rhythm with the business
11:15 Sponsors — Anrok | RightRev | Pulley
14:07 Jake Kornreich: title vs. impact
18:23 Get into the room where decisions are made
22:08 Sponsors — Rillet | Maximor | Brex
25:23 Dan Betts: don't church it up
27:11 The higher up you go, the simpler it gets
29:04 Dan Betts: the many faces of EBITDA
30:39 Understand what success means to them
32:07 Jake Kornreich: the $5M budget bust
33:04 Bad news travels fast
35:01 Alan Imberman: the $100K coffee tab
38:15 ROI on perks
40:25 Alan Imberman: long-term vs. short-term investors
43:28 Would you take the Lehman job?
45:44 Credits
#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFO #FinanceLeadership #StartupGrowth #FinanceHistory

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ goes live from Rillet Recon with Dana Decker (VP of Finance at Opendoor), AJ Ljubich (SVP, FP&A at Datadog), and Micah Richard (Principal, AI at PwC) to unpack how finance teams are actually using AI.
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SPONSORS:
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at anrok.com/rtn
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.com
Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at Pulley.com/mostlymetrics
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer cut their close in half, took audit findings from seven to zero, and cut back-office costs by 70% in six months. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at maximor.ai
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guests:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/aj-ljubich-cfa-727ab912/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dana-decker/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/micah-richard-64a53238/
Companies:
https://www.datadoghq.com/
https://www.opendoor.com/
https://www.pwc.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and Intro
2:27 Panel intros: AJ, Micah, Dana
4:00 FP&A a year ago vs. today
6:45 Opendoor: default-to-AI company
7:40 Leadership being in the weeds
8:30 Building a daily P&L view with Claude
9:39 Sponsors — Brex | Anrok | RightRev
12:38 Forecasting at Datadog: consumption model
14:20 AI picks up seasonality, misses customer context
15:10 Semantic layer and blessed queries
16:35 Self-serve data: how far can you go?
20:10 Best-in-class adoption: build over buy
20:23 Sponsors — Pulley | Rillet | Maximor
23:30 Does a 2-year head start matter?
24:10 Build vs. buy criteria haven't changed
25:10 Evaluating vendor roadmaps
26:20 Procurement shifting toward build
28:00 Data access controls and RBAC
31:00 Token usage: haves and have-nots
32:50 Encouraging tokens across the org
34:40 ROI metrics haven't changed
35:45 90-day advice: just start
36:55 Leadership has to pull the red tape
38:05 Get the data right first
39:07 Credits

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down Lime’s S-1 as the scooter company heads toward the public markets. He gets into the $1.8B valuation, Wayne Ting’s turnaround playbook, Lime’s unit economics, the post-Covid recovery, and the debt wall that may be forcing the IPO window open.
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SPONSORS:
SpendHound cuts your SaaS and AI spend by up to 30% using real pricing benchmarks across 10,000 vendors, so you always know what fair pricing looks like before your next renewal. Rated #1 on G2 in SaaS spend management, it's free forever for teams up to 1,000 employees. Sign up by June 12th and get $500 just for getting started. Go to https://www.spendhound.com/cj
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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RELATED EPISODES:
SpaceX S1 Breakdown
https://youtu.be/AARjbTO8FKo
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Intro
1:48 What Lime does
2:47 Phoenix rising from the ashes
3:53 Revenue: $887M, 29% growth
6:38 Gross margin and the depreciation trick
7:53 Adjusted EBITDA: $218M, up 42%
8:27 Why the net loss got bigger
9:54 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph
13:08 Revenue per vehicle per day
13:42 Marketing: only 2% of revenue
14:01 Subscription mix: 28% and rising
14:25 The debt: $821M but most converts
15:37 The turnaround story
16:42 What Wayne found taking over
17:31 The three numbers he locked in on
18:05 The warehouse overhaul
19:31 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY
22:33 The debt deep dive
23:20 Why the net loss widened
24:27 Post-IPO: nearly debt free
25:07 Why more scooters make each scooter worth more
28:43 How a scooter pays for itself
30:43 The swappable battery
32:39 Is this a real moat?
34:14 Red flag 1: going concern
35:11 Red flag 2: depreciation change before IPO
36:11 Red flag 3: permits can disappear
36:32 Red flag 4: Uber is everything
37:24 Red flag 5: vehicles catch fire
37:56 Valuation: under 2x revenue
39:55 Comps: between Lyft and Uber
40:55 Bull vs. bear
41:52 Legal name is Neutron Holdings
42:47 Credits

On this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Confluent CFO Rohan Sivaram to talk goal setting, prioritization, consumption-based pricing, hybrid zero-based budgeting, and the frameworks finance leaders use to scale companies. Rohan shares why he carries his 12-month goals with him, how he evaluates opportunities through TAM, technology, and team, and why usage-based pricing changes the entire operating model.
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SPONSORS:
EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
SpendHound cuts your SaaS and AI spend by up to 30% using real pricing benchmarks across 10,000 vendors, so you always know what fair pricing looks like before your next renewal. Rated #1 on G2 in SaaS spend management, it's free forever for teams up to 1,000 employees. Sign up by June 12th and get $500 just for getting started. Go to https://www.spendhound.com/cj
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
—
LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rohan-sivaram-69007b7/
Company: https://www.confluent.io/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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RELATED EPISODES:
A CFO Explains Marketplaces
https://youtu.be/LpbH9GpBrSY
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and Intro
2:26 Writing down 12-month goals and carrying them
6:33 Rule of 168: 168 hours a week
7:36 Delegation and calendar management
9:25 Learning to say no: cultural shift
11:32 Sponsors — EY | SpendHound | Brex
14:29 Joining Confluent: the state of the company
16:57 Building blocks of a budgeting process
19:46 Execute, learn, adapt
21:59 Healthy tension in the planning cycle
22:26 Sponsors — Aleph | RightRev | Rillet
25:46 What is hybrid zero-based budgeting?
30:37 Moving from subscription to consumption pricing
32:22 Why this was a one-way door
33:56 New metrics required in a consumption business
35:28 Evaluating job opportunities: the three T's
37:39 Networking and reciprocity
39:54 Lightning round
40:04 Screwed up: free cash flow sign error
42:03 Advice to younger self: take more risks
42:38 Finance software stack
43:00 AI tools the team has built
43:44 Credits