The Greenhaus Effect: GDP, Tariffs & What's Priced In
Dan Nathan is joined by Dan Greenhaus , Strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management. The duo discuss recent market trends, including significant economic indicators like GDP and PCE, and delve into the impact of tariffs and trade deals on the stock market. Greenhaus offers a contrarian perspective on the current market sentiment, arguing that the potential for a shallow recession has been overstated. The conversation also touches on the durability of consumer spending, the implications of AI investment, and the potential trajectories for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Packed with valuable insights, this episode provides a thoughtful analysis of both immediate market conditions and longer-term economic forecasts.
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53:52
Tech Wreck Scar Tissue & AI Hype with Steve Milunovich
Dan Nathan is joined by seasoned analyst Steve Milunovich. Steve, who has a rich history as a sell-side analyst at Merrill Lynch and other institutions, discusses the various technological waves spanning from the centralized computing era of mainframes to the current generative AI boom. They dive deep into the historical context of tech market cycles, including the dot-com bubble and the rise of mobile, social, and cloud computing. Steve shares his insights on the role of major tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Nvidia in these cycles and the challenges of identifying future market leaders. The episode also explores frameworks for investing in individual companies, highlighting key differentiation strategies and the evolving nature of tech ecosystems. Finally, Dan and Steve reflect on the entrepreneurial legacies of Steve Jobs and Elon Musk.
References
The Carlota Perez Framework (AVC)
AI’s $600B Question (Sequoia)
Hamilton Helmer's 7 Powers
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33:16
Trump's First 100 Days 'Redux'
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan dissect the current state of the market after the second Trump administration's first 100 days, tariff impacts, and key economic events. The pair highlights significant headlines from the Wall Street Journal and discusses the implications of automotive tariffs, GM profits, and job cuts at UPS. They weigh in on the persistent high volatility index, bond market movements, and the differing stances within the financial sector, particularly David Solomon's comments from Goldman Sachs. The episode also examines macroeconomic factors affecting big tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, CapEx investments, and the potential for an economic recession. The conversation wraps up with expectations for upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, earnings reports, and job numbers, emphasizing the intertwined nature of global economic policies and market reactions.
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25:18
Investors Brace For Mega Earnings Week: $META, $MSFT, $AMZN and $AAPL Report
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami look forward to the impactful earnings reports from major tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, even as the market anticipates Friday's jobs report. They analyze specific companies, including Tesla's contentious earnings call and Google's recent performance, and consider broader economic themes like the potential for a weaker US dollar and its implications.
Articles
Unhedged and Burned, Stock Investors Brace for More Dollar Pain (Bloomberg)
China’s Huawei Develops New AI Chip, Seeking to Match Nvidia (WSJ)
The new AI calculus: Google’s 80% cost edge vs. OpenAI’s ecosystem (Venture Beat)
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31:39
Gold, Ghost Cities, and the Great Credit Cycle: Mike Kao on Global Economic Shifts
Guy Adami interviews Mike Kao from Akanthos Capital Management. They discuss recent unprecedented movements in currencies, commodities, and the bond market. Mike delves into the concepts of dollar hegemony and the distinction between currency strength and adoption. He examines the current state of U.S. debt, global reserve currencies, and the potential impact of a shift towards gold. The conversation also covers Trump's economic policies, a possible peace black swan effect, and the volatile oil market. Mike concludes with his views on the stock market, emphasizing the importance of event-driven investments amidst market volatility.
Article Referenced
The dollar has further to fall (FT)
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Welcome to the RiskReversal Pod, where Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by the most brilliant minds in markets and tech.
We break down the most important market moving headlines to help listeners make better informed investing decisions.
Our goal is to deconstruct Wall Street speak and offer contrarian insights and strategies that help investors navigate increasingly volatile markets.
Tune into the RiskReversal Pod Monday through Friday for succinct 30 minute pod drops of market analysis that you won't find anywhere else.
For new episodes of On The Tape with Danny Moses, search "On The Tape" in your favorite podcast platform.
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FOLLOW US
YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
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