Geopolitical Cousins

The Cousins™ dismantle the lazy myths swirling around Venezuela, U.S. power, and the idea that every successful strike is a reusable template. This is about oil, incentives, and why markets consistently misunderstand force until it’s already been applied. Most importantly, this episode is a warning against one of the most dangerous impulses in geopolitics: assuming yesterday’s clean win guarantees tomorrow’s easy one. When credibility is tested and restraint looks optional, the real risk isn’t chaos - it’s overconfidence.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(04:55) - Discussion on Venezuela and US Foreign Policy(06:20) - Saudi Arabia's Economic Strategy and Oil Market Dynamics(15:11) - Potential Geopolitical Moves: Iran, Cuba, and Greenland(33:10) - Trump's Trolling Tactics(33:26) - Venezuela's Impact on Trump's Strategy(34:18) - Trump's Liberal Tendencies(35:07) - Greenland and NATO Implications(36:03) - Legal Constraints and Political Realities(38:00) - Republican Party Dynamics(39:09) - Geopolitical Myths and Realities(50:27) - US Intervention History(01:00:50) - Rare Earths and Global Strategy(01:02:12) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Welcome to another normal week in geopolitics - on your left, you'll see the Trump administration (allegedly) flying into Caracas at 1am and walking Nicolás Maduro out the door. No moral sermons, no democracy talk, just raw power politics, naked and unapologetic. Jacob and Marko unpack what this moment says about American empire, hypocrisy fatigue, regime change fantasies, and why history, from Panama to Iran, keeps repeating itself.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Podcast Announcement(00:31) - US Attack on Venezuela: Initial Reactions(02:11) - Historical Context of US Foreign Policy(03:12) - Trump's Hypocrisy and US Foreign Policy Consistency(03:49) - Marko's Perspective on the US Operation in Venezuela(05:37) - Conspiracy Theories and Military Operations(07:42 Implications of the US Operation in Venezuela(11:56) - Potential Regime Change in Venezuela(16:54) - Cuba as the Next Geopolitical Target(27:42) - Latin America's Political Landscape and US Influence(41:03) - Global Power Shifts and Resource Relevance(41:45) - China's Influence in South America(43:41) - Challenges of Economic Development in Latin America(46:20) - Geopolitical Tensions and Regime Changes(48:49) - The Chuck Norris Premium and Oil Prices(01:04:28) - Middle Eastern Conflicts and Rivalries(01:14:27) - Geopolitical Movies and Historical Events----Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:

Geopolitics isn’t just policy memos and grim men in bad suits... it’s explosions, bad decisions, and unintended consequences (preferably set to a great score). The movies that we obsess over aren’t accidental; they’re training wheels for understanding power.War films that explain absolutely nothing.Spy thrillers where everyone is in the wrong.Resource dramas where greed wins (reality?).Collapse stories where systems rot from the inside.Cinema is where geopolitics drops the pretense and tells the truth: states are insecure, leaders are flawed, and incentives matter more than intentions. Consider this a syllabus disguised as a watchlist - where empires rise, fall, and usually trip over their own feet along the way.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:54) - Categories of Geopolitical Movies(04:44) - First Pick(09:15) - Second Pick(14:26) - Third Pick(18:59) - Fourth Pick(22:27) - Fifth Pick(25:10) - Sixth Pick(30:43) - Seventh Pick(32:14) - Eighth Pick(34:50) - Ninth Pick(36:00) - Listen to find out :)--Referenced in the Show:Jacob's List:Marko's List:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Welcome to the future. In 2026, we're pretty convinced that the global map will get some major rewrites. Our '26 bingo card has the potential collapse of the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes, the end of the war in Ukraine, and the subsequent battle for Russia’s very soul crossed out. While others fear peaking deglobalization, Marko and Jacob see a path to lowered tariffs and an incoming LNG glut that finally breaks the back of Europe’s energy crisis. It’s time to stop looking for patterns and start preparing for the non-linear :) chaoschaoschaoschaos--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:16) - Forecasting 2026: Tariffs and Trade(04:40) - US-China Relations and Latin America Focus(11:03) - Predictions for Venezuela and Cuba(13:55) - Ukraine War and Russian Politics(23:57) - European Energy Market Outlook(28:36) - Middle East: A Callous Perspective(29:50) - Saudi Arabia and UAE: Progress and Predictions(30:25) - Iran's Uncertain Future(32:11) - Turkey's Role in Geopolitics(33:08) - Oil Prices and Middle East Stability(35:59) - Israel's Resilience and Market Impact(39:42) - Forecasting Global Trade Agreements(44:57) - The Rise of Robotics in 2026(51:34) - Blind Spots and Unmentioned Regions(54:41) - Final Thoughts and Potential Oversights--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Look, the world is decoupling, and everyone is making their bet. Mexico just threw their chips on the table with 50% tariffs, effectively divorcing China to marry the U.S. in a desperate play for North American relevance. Meanwhile, the Andes are swinging hard right, betting that nationalism and market-pro policies are the only way to survive a multipolar free-for-all.... But here's the truth: tariffs are just a consumption tax in a MAGA hat, and if the Supreme Court kills them, the bond market is going to riot. Forget the politics; follow the robots and the revenue.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome :)(01:41) - Mexico's Tariff Decision(07:44) - The Impact of Robotics on Manufacturing(23:42) - Chile's Shift to the Right(24:56) - Right-Wing Movements in Latin America(31:22) - Crime and Immigration in Latin America(38:13) - Montreal and Miami: Cities Built on Illicit Trafficking(38:55) - The Godfather: An American Story of Crime and Legitimization(40:14) - Fentanyl: Declared a Weapon of Mass Destruction(42:38) - US Foreign Policy: Lessons from the 1980s(46:05) - The Trump Administration's Controversial Policies(56:44) - Supreme Court and Tariffs: A Critical Decision(01:10:54) - Concluding Thoughts on US Policy and Economics--Referenced in the Show:Fent is a WMD: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/designating-fentanyl-as-a-weapon-of-mass-destruction/--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: