Geopolitical Cousins

• Political Violence And Theater

  Jacob and Marko open up today's emergency episode with a sobering reflection on the assassination of Charlie Kirk, part of a disturbing rise in U.S. political violence. They urge caution against rushing to assign motives before facts emerge, warning that both left and right are exploiting the tragedy for division. From there, the episode dives into another series of crises from Russian drones in Poland to Israeli strikes in Qatar, underscoring how geopolitics often blurs lines between theater and real escalation. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Assassination of Charlie Kirk(02:22) - Political Violence in the US(07:32) - Social Media's Role in Political Discourse(17:29) - Poland and Russia Tensions(33:13) - Israel's Attack on Qatar(38:47) - Nation Building and Israeli Politics(39:47) - Israel's Shift from Plausible Deniability(40:20) - Ethnic Cleansing in Gaza(40:52) - The Hubris of Israeli Strategy(44:07) - The Impact on Israel's Brand(50:16) - Nepal's Gen Z Uprising(52:14) - Indonesia and South Asian Instability(59:04) - Argentina's Economic Challenges(01:09:07) - Trump's Tariffs and Legal Battles(01:17:17) - Conclusion and Future Topics--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

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  1:17:39
• We're So Back (It's So Over)

  After battling several rounds of pneumonia, Jacob Shapiro rejoins the fray with Marko and tackles the whole month of missed content. The two spar over vaccine mandates and the cultural recycling of movies before turning to the economic disruptions posed by artificial intelligence. From there, the discussion moves to geopolitics: a hot-mic exchange between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on longevity, the emergence of a multipolar world, India’s shifting diplomatic posture, and the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela and trade. Welcome back!!!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome Back(00:11) - Jacob's Health and Listener Comments(02:17) - Vaccine Mandates and Public Health(04:03) - Florida and Personal Anecdotes(05:09) - Podcasting and Media Industry Insights(07:20) - AI's Impact on Talent and Content Creation(11:14) - Political Landscape and Aging Leaders(17:30) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Multipolarity(30:44) - China's Foreign Policy and Taiwan(33:02) - US-India Relations and Recent Developments(40:37) - Venezuela and US Military Actions(45:16) - Debating Regime Change in Venezuela(46:33) - Historical Examples of Regime Change(48:10) - Trump's Approach to Foreign Policy(50:28) - Analyzing Trump's Popularity by Issue(53:56) - Economic Indicators and Future Predictions(01:00:54) - The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies(01:05:07) - The Role of AI in Rising Electricity Costs(01:08:02) - Political Landscape and Future Elections(01:21:10) - EuroBasket and Basketball Insights--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter:

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  1:25:55

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  1:25:55
• What The F*ck Is a Framework Trade Agreement???

  Jacob and Marko roll out their first “Geopolitical Six Pack,” each bringing three key global developments to the table. They unpack the Trump-EU “framework” trade deal, argue over the strategic logic of tariffs, and assess Europe’s long game. From Taiwan’s volatile domestic politics to Trump’s AI policy pivot and Chinese tech strategy, the cousins explore how material wealth drives power in a multipolar world. Also on tap: India’s souring relations with the U.S., forgotten territorial disputes, and sleeper NBA picks. It’s freewheeling, irreverent, and insight-drenched—just don’t drink all six at once.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction to the Intellectual Six Pack(01:34) - Beer Preferences and College Memories(04:06) - Geopolitical Six Pack Concept(05:49) - US-EU Trade Deal Analysis(11:29) - Implications of the Trade Deal(25:35) - Taiwan's Political Landscape(38:21) - US Defense Strategy for Taiwan and Ukraine(41:31) - Trump's Impact on US-India Relations(47:19) - Trump's AI Strategy and US-China Tech Rivalry(01:00:30) - Global Geopolitical Dynamics and Forgotten Territorial Disputes(01:04:58) - Fantasy Basketball Draft Tips--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

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  1:15:24

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  1:15:24
• Putin’s Out of Time, Not Troops

  Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic dive into the shifting dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump’s evolving stance. They analyze Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Putin, potential secondary sanctions, and U.S. weapons sales to NATO. The conversation critiques misconceptions about Trump’s loyalty, explores Putin’s domestic challenges, and assesses the potential for a ceasefire. The second half explores tariffs, inflation, and the global trade order, emphasizing Trump’s erratic strategic thinking and the long-term implications for U.S. alliances, particularly with Brazil, India, and Europe.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Catching Up on Global Events(01:54) - Deep Dive: Russia-Ukraine Conflict(03:56) - Trump's Stance on Russia and Ukraine(06:02) - Putin's Challenges and Strategic Objectives(09:37) - Potential Outcomes and Strategic Moves(13:22) - Drone Warfare and Technological Advancements(25:07) - Trademarking 'Paul Baba Bombadil'(25:14) - Analyzing the Latest CPI Data(26:13) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies(27:14) - Political Implications of Inflation(28:22) - Market Perspective on CPI and Inflation(31:38) - US Government's Role in Rare Earths(33:17) - Trump's Trade Policies and Global Impact(37:21) - Strategic Alliances and Global Trade(40:54) - Trump's Approach to International Relations(47:44) - Final Thoughts on Global Trade and Politics--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:

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  54:36

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  54:36
• Realpolitik with Range (Trade Value Leaders Index P2)

  Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic deliver part two of their Trade Value Leaders ranking—a spirited, analytical exercise measuring global leaders by their geopolitical utility. Shapiro leans into controversial picks like Lula and Netanyahu, defends the logic behind selecting Orban, and emphasizes competence over charisma. Marko defends bold picks like Syria’s al-Julani and Hungary’s Orban, and pushes back on overrated legacy players (like Lula). The two dive into emerging talent like Albania’s Rama and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev while voicing concern over leaders without clear succession plans. The top of the list features figures like Sheinbaum, Meloni, and MBS, with Trump and Putin notably excluded for strategic blunders. It’s a sharp, irreverent take on global leadership dynamics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:58) - The Trade Value Leaders List(03:53) - Controversial Picks and Listener Feedback(06:27) - Deep Dives into Specific Leaders(11:04) - Comparing Leaders to Basketball Players(14:18) - The Legacy Question and Future Leaders(20:27v Top Picks and Their Geopolitical Impact(41:44) - Moral Equivalency Debate(42:59) - Technical Difficulties and Top Two Leaders(48:10) - Georgia Maloney's Economic Turnaround(50:09) - Claudia Shane Baum's Leadership in Mexico(52:01) - Discussion on Vladimir Putin's Leadership(01:06:36) - Debate on Zelensky's Leadership(01:19:02) - Xi Jinping's Strategic Missteps(01:21:31) - China's Social Welfare Failures(01:22:51) - Xi Jinping's Rise to Power(01:24:35) - Xi Jinping's Nationalism and Economic Policies(01:26:03) - Xi Jinping's Challenges and Leadership Style(01:28:58) - Debating Xi Jinping's Impact(01:37:38) - Trump's Leadership and Controversies(01:42:07) - Evaluating Trump's Domestic and Foreign Policies(02:04:42) - Final Thoughts on Trump and Leadership Rankings--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter:

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  2:06:09

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