Geopolitical Cousins

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston
(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter
(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game
(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory
(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters
(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity
(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm
(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit
(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks
(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox
(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America
(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate
(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines
(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage
(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines
(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table
(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation
(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand
(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks
(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent
(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning
(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy
(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be.
Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Housekeeping
(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter
(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes
(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check
(05:16) - Fungible Oil and Discount Myth
(11:02) - US Economy Needs Low Oil
(18:17) - China Reserves and EV Strategy
(22:46) - SPR Politics and Election Risk
(25:57) - China Energy Stats and Seaborne Risk
(31:26) - Trade Dependence and Supply Chains
(34:06) - Five D Chess and US as Supplier
(40:16) - Industrial Policy and Borg Metaphor
(45:36) - Tariffs Versus Competition
(47:41) - China EVs Copying Tesla
(49:57) - Education And Immigration Edge
(50:48) - Oil Sanctions Are Futile
(52:23) - UAE Dollar Swap Line
(54:52) - Japan China Tensions Rising
(59:31) - DC Trip Policy Chaos
(01:04:51) - Trump Court Politics
(01:09:44) - Military Adults Missing
(01:16:45) - Memes And Trade Value Tease
(01:20:04) - Closing Banter And Wrap
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts
(00:56) - Hero Principal Story
(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter
(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals
(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets
(12:30) - Nuclear Material Dilemma
(15:09) - Deescalation and Market Complacency
(22:28) - Is the Deal Superficial
(28:31) - Will Iran Change Behavior
(37:25) - Is Iran Really the Villain
(41:45) - Iran vs Saudi Hypocrisy Debate
(44:18) - Trump Is The Swamp
(44:43) - Pump The Brakes On Iran
(46:50) - Exit Middle East Vision
(48:32) - Terrorism And Threat Math
(50:23) - Opportunity Cost At Home
(52:05) - Petrodollar Explained
(55:51) - Inertia And Diversification
(58:04) - Reputation Versus Savings
(58:45) - Football Trade Metaphors
(01:02:20) - Falcons Pain And Fandom
(01:04:09) - Listener Coffee Shoutout
(01:06:27) - Orban Era Ends
(01:08:13) - Europe Rightward Shift
(01:10:51) - Millennial Politics Rising
(01:14:37) - TMZ Comes To DC
(01:19:45) - Democracy Versus Elites
(01:22:11) - Making Geopolitics Fun
(01:25:39) - Sponsors And Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot
(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter
(04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions
(05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold
(07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth
(14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives
(16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance
(18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits
(22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers
(28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity
(31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains
(38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term
(39:05) - Energy Transit Logic
(40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism
(41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades
(42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout
(43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise
(44:49) - US Forces Reality Check
(47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities
(49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China
(56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices
(59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups
(01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play
(01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift
(01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow
(01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Open
(00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates
(01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions
(02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction
(08:19) - Two Doors A Or B
(11:43) - Door C War But Oil
(16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets
(20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability
(24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios
(35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage
(37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits
(38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario
(39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate
(41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift
(43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium
(46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check
(49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover
(50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument
(54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US
(59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case
(1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State
(01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks
(01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro