John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism

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YouTube Channel member @edhodapp6465 asks: should we go to war against the Houthis, and is damaging Iran's proxies a worthwhile strategy? My answer is no. We're at war with Iran, but we're not fighting the Houthis. They're fighting Saudi Arabia. We already failed to beat them in 2025, and after the war with Iran, we have even fewer munitions now. The Houthis can hit Saudi oil infrastructure and control the Bab el-Mandeb strait. And if we started winning, I believe Iran would step in. The U.S. has no winning strategy in the Gulf.

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CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
0:04 Should we go to war against the Houthis?
0:47 Two separate wars: US vs. Iran, Houthis vs. Saudi Arabia
2:07 Trump's failed 2025 campaign against the Houthis
3:13 Should the US join Saudi Arabia against the Houthis?
3:41 Why the Houthis are a real threat (Bab el-Mandeb)
4:25 Why the answer is no: we can't win, and we're short on munitions
6:29 Houthi retaliation and Saudi oil infrastructure
8:03 What if the US were winning? Iran would step in
9:08 Conclusion: no winning strategy in the Middle East

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YouTube Channel member ⁠@spacecometrue ⁠ asked me to share my analysis of the causes and course of the Korean War. North Korea invaded the South on June 25, 1950, and nearly won before the U.S. stepped in. MacArthur's Inchon landing pushed the North Koreans back to the 38th parallel. When we crossed it and headed for the Yalu River, China entered the war in October 1950, and from that point it was really a war between the U.S. and China. It ended in an armistice in July 1953, not a peace agreement. I also explain why each side fought. North Korea wanted to unify the peninsula. The U.S. came in after Dean Acheson's blunder, because a Soviet ally controlling Korea threatened Japan and Northeast Asia. China found U.S. troops on its border unacceptable, much as Russia saw Ukraine in NATO. I also cover how the war militarized the Cold War, and why I think the Korean Peninsula is stable today despite North Korea's nuclear weapons. ———————————————————— 
CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: 0:04 A member's question on Korea 0:41 How the Korean War unfolded 1:36 The U.S. enters and the Inchon landing 2:08 Crossing the 38th parallel 3:15 China enters the war 4:31 Really a U.S.–China war, and the 1953 armistice 5:28 How Korea militarized the Cold War 6:55 Why North Korea invaded 8:27 Why the U.S. came in: Acheson's blunder 10:24 Why China came in 11:16 The Ukraine–NATO parallel 12:41 The Korean Peninsula today 14:01 Why North Korea's nukes are defensive 15:24 Verdict: another war is unlikely ————————————————————

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It seems clear that the Trump administration and its allies are working overtime to create the false impression that the United States is well on its way to defeating Iran and that Tehran should therefore submit to American demands sooner rather than later. If it does not, so the argument goes, not only will the economic punishment inflicted on Iran reach crushing levels, but President Trump will launch a devastating military attack that might even include putting U.S. ground forces into Iran. I will argue in this episode that this is largely a propaganda campaign—and that it is unlikely to work because Iran, not the Trump administration, is in the driver’s seat.

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CHAPTERS

0:00 Intro
0:42 The Administration's Propaganda Campaign
3:41 A Two-Pronged Approach
4:12 The Economic Argument: Blockade & Bessent's Strategy
6:21 The Military Argument: More Troops & Carriers
8:48 Why the Story Is Deeply Flawed
9:16 Why a New Air Campaign Won't Work
10:51 The "Three Carriers" Myth
14:28 Striking Oil Infrastructure & Iran's Second Strike
15:35 The Ground Invasion: How Many Combat Troops?
20:23 What Can You Do With 7,500 Troops?
23:05 Body Bags & Getting the Marines Ashore
25:19 Will Economic Pain Make Iran Surrender?
26:28 Lesson of History: Blockades Alone Don't Win Wars
28:38 Facing an Existential Threat
29:23 Iran's Doomsday Option
31:14 Is the West Really Doing Well?
32:01 New Strait Attacks & the Houthi Threat to Saudi Oil
34:30 Oil Is Flowing, but Economies Are Still Hurting
36:01 Bottom Line

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MUSIC

"The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

I'll explain how the Vietnam War shaped my thinking about international relations, and the lessons it holds for today.

I'll explain why I believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next decade is unlikely, and the one scenario that could change that.