In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam introduces a team of S&P Global economists to discuss the latest analysis and predictions for the global economy as we move into the latter half of 2025. Taken from a recent webinar, the discussion delves into key macroeconomic themes, including the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies, divergent inflation dynamics, and the impact of fiscal sustainability on major economies. Listeners will gain valuable insights into the expected moderation of U.S. growth, the struggles of Europe's largest economies, and the resilience of mainland China's economy. The episode highlights the significant role tariffs play in shaping inflation and economic slowdown, as well as the varying monetary policies between the U.S. and Europe. Join us as we explore the intricate connections between geopolitical developments, trade dynamics, and economic performance in various regions, all while addressing the looming risks and opportunities that lie ahead. Whether you’re a seasoned economist or just curious about the state of the global economy, this episode provides essential analysis to empower confident decision-making. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global economic outlook: July 2025 US tariffs: Impact on the US construction industry Trade and tariffs insights and news Credits: Hosts: Kristen Hallam, Ken Wattret Guests: Ben Herzon, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Diego Iscaro Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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PMI in Focus: Inflation Insights and Expectations for 2026
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's team of Purchasing Managers' Index economists decodes inflation, highlighting the stark differences between the US and Eurozone. Join host Paul Smith and fellow economists Andrew Harker and Phil Smith as they explore the underlying factors driving these trends, including tariffs and exchange rate movements. The team analyzes the latest PMI numbers from Germany and discuss how inflation expectations shape price pressures and client behavior, using Ghana as a compelling case study. The economists also look for clues into what firms worldwide are planning for the upcoming year in our Business Outlook data. The discussion features special questions regarding the impact of tariffs, focusing on Germany, the US, and Ireland, where these effects are expected to be significant. As they wrap up, they consider investment and employment strategies amid an uncertain economic landscape. Tune in for a comprehensive look at the forces shaping our global economy and what they mean for businesses moving forward. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Strong currency appreciation opens door to interest rate cuts in Ghana Global economic outlook: June 2025 Trade and tariffs insights and news Credits: Host: Paul Smith Guests: Andrew Harker, Phil Smith Produced By: Sophie Carr Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun
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Takeaways on Tariffs Following July 9 Developments
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Chris Rogers and John Raines to unpack the latest developments in U.S. tariffs and trade policy as of July 9. With the U.S. administration's approach to leveraging tariffs as a negotiation tool, the experts assess recent agreements with countries like Vietnam, the U.K., and China, and the complexities surrounding ongoing negotiations. The team also examines the implications of transshipment practices, particularly in Southeast Asia, and the legal challenges currently facing tariff implementations. As the administration aims to revitalize U.S. manufacturing while navigating intricate international relationships, this episode provides critical insights into the future of trade relations and the potential economic impacts on both domestic and global markets. Listen now to an engaging discussion of the evolving landscape of tariffs and trade. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Tariff Uncertainty Is Likely to Continue Through Late 2025 Implications of the India-UK Free-Trade Agreement Trade and tariffs insights and news Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: Chris Rogers, John Raines Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Kristen Hallam Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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Strategic Opportunities: Flipping the Script on the Risk Story
How do you identify which markets present the best opportunity for growth, and which are especially vulnerable to fluctuating trade and tariff policies? In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam uncovers the origin stories behind two tools created to address these key questions: the Strategic Opportunity Index (SOI) and the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index (TTV). Joining Kristen for this discussion are expert guests Cassandra Pagan, Justin Valentino, and Natasha McSwiggan. The discussion begins with an exploration of the SOI, designed to provide clarity in a complex geopolitical and trade landscape by evaluating market attractiveness through five key pillars: market potential, policy favorability, institutional quality, logistics efficiency, and resource availability. The guests share insights on how momentum scoring within the SOI helps identify expanding market opportunities, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trajectories rather than just current standings. The conversation also highlights the origin stories behind both indices, showcasing the collaborative efforts of the team to create tools that can guide strategic decision-making for businesses navigating global trade dynamics. The experts discuss how the TTV assesses the vulnerability of economies to tariffs, providing valuable insights for businesses to adapt and strategize in the face of evolving U.S. trade policies. Listeners will gain a deeper understanding of how these indices can inform economic decisions, identify potential risks, and uncover opportunities in the global marketplace. Join us for an engaging discussion that combines analytical rigor with practical applications, perfect for anyone interested in the intersection of economics and global trade. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: The Strategic Opportunity Index Uncertain US Tariff Policy Raises Risks for Trading Partners Country Risk Month Ahead: July 2025 Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: Cassandra Pagan, Justin Valentino, Natasha McSwiggan Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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MENA in Focus: Potential for Conflict and Cooperation
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by analysts Jacob Lees Weiss and Kevjn Lim to explore the intricate and rapidly shifting risk landscape in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Recorded before significant military operations in Iran, the discussion explores nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, the implications of potential sanctions, and the dynamics of Israeli military strategy. The episode highlights key geopolitical tensions, including the evolving relationship between the US and Israel and the impact of these factors on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Listeners will gain insights into the challenges facing the Syrian Transitional Government and the role of foreign support in stabilizing the region. With a focus on the potential for both conflict and cooperation, this episode provides a comprehensive overview of the MENA region's current state and future outlook, making it essential listening for anyone interested in international relations, economics, and market intelligence. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Picture This: Israel-Iran Conflict Leads to Sharp Shock in Global Growth Maritime shadow fleet − Formation, operation and continuing risk for sanctions compliance teams in 2025 Trade and tariffs insights and news Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: Kevjn Lim, Jacob Lees Weiss Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
O The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
Whether you're a business leader, investor, or simply curious about the forces shaping our world, The Decisive podcast is here to provide you with the knowledge you need to stay ahead. Join our team of seasoned Market Intelligence analysts as they explore the ever-changing landscape of maritime, trade and supply chain, economics and country risk.
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