The Fed Will Choose Inflation Over Recession | Vincent Deluard
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX joins Monetary Matters to discuss why he believes changes to policy makers toolkit and to the structure of the economy mean recessions are “cancelled.” He also discusses why he believes Trump’s MAGA economic policies will be bad for corporate profit margins and his bullish outlook on oil and energy stocks.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:07 Recessions are Cancelled
08:23 The No Recession Feedback Loop
11:11 Impact of Tariffs
13:21 MAGA’s War on Corporate Profits
19:26 Corporate Tax Rates
21:56 Fiscal Balance of Payments Crisis
26:11 Outlook for Inflation, Growth, and Rates
36:07 Outlook for the Stock Market
40:51 US Multiples Compared to Rest of the World
45:18 Bullish View on Oil & Energy Sector
55:15 July Fed Predictions
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57:49
Capacity Constrained by Design: The 25-Year-Old Building Niche Multi-Manager Hedge Fund Platforms | Zach Levitt
Zach Levitt, CIO and Founder of Sixth Turn Capital and Opus One Asset Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss how he is standing up multi-manager platforms at just 25 years old by focusing on niche capacity constrained managers. Levitt discusses the benefits of combining uncorrelated capacity constrained strategies in a multi-manager platform, his unconventional path to founding a multi-manager platform, how mentorship has helped accelerate his growth, and how he goes about attracting talented investors to his platform.
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:48 Skipping the Analyst Track and Founding a Hedge Fund at 25
07:14 Many Great Track Records Indicate Nefarious Information Was Traded On
09:42 What Does a Good Capacity Constrained Manager Look Like?
13:38 What Level of Correlation is "Uncorrelated"
18:20 What Level of Capacity is "Capacity Constrained"?
21:30 Mentorship Through Podcasts & Cold Outreach
26:13 Convincing Managers To Join Your Platform as a 25 Year Old
28:46 Investor Interest in SMAs vs Commingled Funds
35:25 Battling Startup Costs
39:06 Selling Talented Investors on Your Success Story
43:39 Risk Management and Cutting Portfolio Managers
47:38 Marketing "Hypothetical" Track Records
52:32 Next Stages of Growth
54:20 Assessing the Capacity Limits
57:17 Can PA Traders Become PMs?
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1:00:23
Trade Policy Isn't Driving China’s Trade Surplus | Matthew Klein
Matthew Klein, founder of The Overshoot and UN/BALANCED and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars with Michael Pettis joins Monetary Matters to discuss what factors really lead to major trade and capital flow imbalances between countries. He argues that factors like income inequality, domestic economic policy and decisions being made at the corporate level can have far more impact than country level trade policy. He also discusses why even though extreme trade and capital flow imbalances may be dangerous, implementing improper solutions can exacerbate the damage.
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Read Matthews Substack The Overshoot here: https://theovershoot.co/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:52 Why Trade Wars Are Class Wars
12:13 Trade Surpluses vs Trade Deficits
18:51 Income Distribution Drives Capital Flows
28:28 China's Shifting Income Distribution
33:41 The Problem With China's Growing Trade and Current Account Surplus
41:51 Who is Winning in China?
44:04 How to Combat China's "Cheating on Trade"
49:25 Who Has the Upper Hand in Trade Negotiations?
54:05 Will Tariffs Drive Reshoring?
59:53 How Can the US Restore Balance of Trade?
01:08:29 Conclusions
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1:13:35
“The Dollar Gets Annihilated” | Julian Brigden & Jonny Matthews on Fiscal Dominance, Secular Bond Bear Market, and Outlook on Rates & Tariffs
This conversation was originally recorded for Julian Brigden’s research service, MacroCapture. Sign up for MacroCapture by MI2 Partners today with coupon codes MM10 (for annual) and MM10Q (for quarterly) to save 10% at:
https://mi2partners.com/macrocapture-landing-page/
Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners and veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro join Monetary Matters for a wide-ranging discussion of the forces that are contributing to a global weak market in sovereign bonds. Recorded May 28th and released for Julian’s MacroCapture clients on June 3rd.
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1:33:12
What Investors Are Overlooking in AI & Semis | Val Zlatev
Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Senior Partner at hard tech specialist hedge fund Analog Century Capital Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss what he thinks investors still fail to appreciate about the secular growth of AI and semiconductors. He also discusses why DeepSeek was so misunderstood, other aspects of the AI supply chain, the state of the analog chip cycle, running long/short and market neutral strategies and garnering interest from the large multi-manager platforms.
Learn More About Analog Century Capital Management: https://www.analogcm.com/
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:15 What is Hard Tech?
02:41 The Evolution of the Hard Tech Sector From the 90s to Now
05:04 Investors Are Underweight Hard Tech
11:09 The Massive Impact of the End of Moore's Law
16:59 New Investment in Semiconductor Capacity
18:08 Why AI Should Be Compared to Cloud, Not Fiber
22:55 What Investors Got Wrong About DeepSeek
25:41 The US Government's Impact on AI & Chips
33:04 The Chinese Government’s Involvement in AI & Chips
35:13 Dominant Players in Chinese Semiconductor Market
39:12 The AI Supply Chain Beyond Semiconductors
43:53 Analog Semiconductors & Power Management
49:55 Winners, Losers, and Fakers in AI
57:03 Research Process for Hard Tech
01:01:25 Dispersion in Hard Tech Returns
01:03:31 Trading and Portfolio Construction at Analog Century
01:08:13 Market Neutral & Garnering Interest From Multi-Manager Platforms
01:12:20 Market Neutral vs Long/Short Investors
01:14:51 The Value of Partners and Team Continuity
01:16:42 Conclusion
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