Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

In this episode, Mark Leonard sits down with Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, in Davos for a conversation about Donald Trump’s view of Ukraine, Greenland, the world and Europe’s place in it. They explore the clash between advocates of multipolarity and those resisting it, and how this battle is reshaping global power.

Together, they reflect on the shifting idea of the West and the challenge of preserving a pragmatic, values based transatlantic relationship. They also explore Finland’s place in this rapidly evolving landscape including the impact of Trump’s sights on Greenland and the war in Ukraine.

Bookshelf
Peacemaker: U Thant and the Forgotten Quest for a Just World by Thant Myint-U

The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order by Alex Stubb

* please note there were technical issues during the recording
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Protests across Iran have entered their third week and Donald Trump is said to be considering a military intervention against the Khamenei regime. According to human rights organisations, its brutal crackdown against demonstrators has led to at least 2,500 deaths, as well as an internet blackout and mass arrests.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to discuss the Iranian protests, what a military intervention by Trump could look like and how Iranians are reacting to the political turmoil.

Could Trump feasibly intervene in Iran? What are his options? How do the current protests differ from those staged after the death of Jina Mahsa Amini? What role could Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, play in a potential regime change? And how does Iran’s nuclear programme fit into all of this?

This podcast was recorded on Thursday 15, January 2026.

Bookshelf
It Was Just an Accident by Jafar Panahi
Taraneh: A Documentary by BBC

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Following on from January 2nd’s prediction episode, Mark Leonard hosts Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East programme director, Alex Vines, ECFR’s Africa programme director, Andrew Small, ECFR’s Asia programme director, and Jana Kobzová, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme, to discuss what challenges Europe should focus on in 2026.

How will global politics shift in 2026? Will we finally see an end to the war in Ukraine? How are the ongoing protests in Iran affecting the likelihood of an Israeli attack? What’s next for the Gaza peace deal? What are the major points of conflict that will shape Africa this year? And will Europeans finally confront China’s growing influence?

Bookshelf
The War Came to Us: Life and Death in Ukraine by Christopher Miller
Indignity: A Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi
Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Road to Power in Syria by Patrick Haenni and Jerome Drevon
Sahel: The Perfect Storm by Morten Bøås
China’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 by Daniel H. Rosen, Logan Wright, Oliver Melton and Jeremy Smith (Rhodium Group)

This podcast was recorded on January 8th 2026
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On January 3rd, the US military struck Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro. Trump has declared that America will now “run” the country, shifting from a narrative which had focused on the US fighting a war against drug traffickers to a narrative which sees the US assert control over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves.

Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR research director, and Nacho Torreblanca, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss why America decided to capture Maduro and what this could mean for the domestic situation in Venezuela—as well as its wider implications for other areas, including Greenland.

What were Trump’s motivations? Will the US increasingly use military force to secure resources and territory across the Americas and the north Atlantic? And could Greenland be next?

Bookshelf

Morir en la arena (To Die in the Sand) by Leonardo Padura
The Revolutionary Temper: Paris, 1748-1789 by Robert Darnton

This podcast was recorded on January 5th 2026
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This week Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR, for their annual end-of-year tradition: marking last year’s predictions and making ten bold forecasts for the year ahead. They look at how their 2025 calls stacked up—from Trump to German politics to Ukraine, China and migration—before turning their attention to 2026.

Will the European far right continue its advance? Is an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine finally within reach? How might US policy on Iran, China and Europe evolve under Trump? And what role will AI, energy security and debt crises play in shaping the year to come?

This podcast was recorded on December 30th 2025.

Bookshelf
The Dream Factory: London’s First Playhouse and the Making of William Shakespeare by Daniel Swift
Ones and Tooze by Adam Tooze
Wer verteidigt Europa?: Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen by Jana Puglierin
Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail by Mark Leonard (April 2026)

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