Daniel Davis Deep Dive

• Russia & Iran: Re-Alignment in the Works /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Andrei Martyanov

  The conversation centers on whether Russia is a weak or ineffective ally—especially in the context of its response to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran. Western media often portrays Russia as too weak or reluctant to help allies like Iran militarily, but Russian expert Andrei Martyanov strongly criticizes this view as propaganda based on ignorance and poor journalism.Key Points:Russia-Iran Military Dynamic:Russia did offer Iran military support (e.g., air defense systems), but Iran declined.This decision was driven by parts of Iran’s political elite—especially urban, pro-Western factions—who hoped rejecting Russian help might win favor with the West. That gamble failed when the West did not come to Iran's aid during Israeli attacks.Iran’s Miscalculation:Iran ratified a Russian economic agreement just before the attacks, but President Raisi (referred to mistakenly as “Peshkan”) delayed signing it until after the strikes began—suggesting Iran misread the geopolitical situation.After the strikes, Iran quickly pivoted back to Russia, initiating high-level defense and diplomatic meetings to reestablish deeper cooperation.Why Russia Didn’t Intervene Militarily:The idea that Russia "failed" Iran is simplistic. Russia cannot help an ally that refuses assistance.Russia views its relationship with Iran as strategic, but not an unconditional alliance like NATO. It's based on mutual interests, not blind loyalty.Historical Context:Relations between Russia (and the USSR) and Iran have long been complicated—marked by wars, invasions (e.g., during WWII), and political distrust.Iran has historically viewed both the U.S. and the Soviet Union as imperialist powers, even if it occasionally works with them.Despite this, ties have warmed since the fall of the USSR, though Iran still harbors a persistent pro-Western current in its culture and politics.What Now?:Iran, having learned the hard way that the West won’t back it, is now actively engaging Russia in full-spectrum cooperation—likely including military.Putin emphasized continued Russian support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear development and legitimate regional interests, indicating no change in Russia’s underlying stance.Conclusion:Russia is not too weak to help its allies; rather, Iran’s refusal of Russian help due to internal politics and pro-Western hopes backfired. Russia responded pragmatically, and now that Iran has reassessed, the partnership is intensifying. The perception of Russian weakness is largely a Western media narrative that ignores the complexity and pragmatism of realpolitik.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• U.S. Halts Weapons for Ukraine /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Alexander Mercouris

  The U.S. has abruptly halted deliveries of many key weapons and ammunition categories to Ukraine—a shift that surprised both Ukraine and many within the U.S. government. While past administrations, particularly under Biden, promised ongoing military aid “for as long as it takes,” the new Trump administration has now reversed course. Although Trump had previously hinted at ending the war, he had not formally restricted aid until now.The Ukrainian government reportedly received no warning and is scrambling to understand the implications, while Russia is likely encouraged by the development.Commentators, including Alexander Mercouris, argue that this decision was inevitable. The U.S. faces rising global military demands—in the Middle East, with China, and elsewhere—and is confronting dwindling weapons stockpiles. The Pentagon is prioritizing American defense needs, including systems like Patriot missiles and B-2 capabilities, which are limited in supply.Critics of the administration’s messaging say invoking “America First” only now appears inconsistent, especially when this strategic reassessment was foreseeable months ago. Indicators, like comments from officials such as Secretary Rubio earlier this year, hinted at the logistical strain. However, the administration delayed action—possibly to save face or avoid signaling weakness to rivals like China.In summary, the cutoff in aid reflects logistical limits, not just a policy shift. The U.S. can no longer sustain high-level support to Ukraine without compromising its own strategic readiness.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• Russian Offensive in Sumy Slows - Changing Nature of War: It's the Drones! /Lt Col Daniel Davis

  The speaker reflects on early assumptions that Russia would be better prepared at the start of the Ukraine war, especially given their proximity to recent conflicts like Nagorno-Karabakh, which showcased the power of drones against armored vehicles. However, new research and interviews reveal a different picture: Russia was unprepared at first but quickly adapted.Key insights include:Initial Missteps: Russia underestimated drone warfare early on, similar to most nations in 2022. Drones weren’t widely used or recognized for their impact. Early in the war, even frontline journalists didn’t focus much on drone threats.Drone Evolution:Once it became clear that small, inexpensive drones could destroy multi-million-dollar tanks and harass supply lines without risking lives, both Ukraine and Russia dramatically ramped up drone use.Russian civil society stepped in where large state enterprises couldn't adapt quickly—civilians began designing and offering drone models to the military.Defensive Mastery: Russia, traditionally strong in defense, integrated drones, air defenses, airstrikes, and glide bombs into a layered, tech-driven defense system that made Ukraine’s 2023 NATO-backed offensive fail.Western Misconceptions: Western generals and analysts, like David Petraeus, overestimated the potential of combined arms maneuver warfare (as used in Iraq 2003) and failed to grasp how much the battlefield had changed due to drone warfare.Implications for NATO and Europe: Despite Western fears, the speaker argues Russia lacks the capacity to roll through Europe—even if it wanted to. Modern warfare's technological complexity and defensive capabilities make large-scale invasions extremely difficult.Ukraine’s Current Position:While Ukraine lacks manpower and air power, it has caught up on drones and uses them effectively.Despite heavy casualties and weakening positions, Ukraine’s drone capabilities have slowed Russia’s advances.However, without manpower and full-scale support, Ukraine cannot reverse the tide.The End of Classic Warfare: The era of large-scale tank-led offensives (like WWII or Iraq 2003) is over. Modern war now revolves around drones, attrition, and adaptation. Those who ignore this shift will fail.The interviews with Russian drone experts and frontliners (like George Mansurov and those featured by Constantine Roshkov) emphasize how civilian innovation and small-scale manufacturers now play a pivotal role in shaping military effectiveness—faster and more flexibly than traditional defense industries.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• Russia's Taken Luhansk Region/50k Troops Surround Sumy Lt Col Danniel Davis & Patrick Henningsen

  The discussion focuses on the stark contrast between optimistic public statements from Ukrainian leadership—especially President Volodymyr Zelensky—and the deteriorating situation on the battlefield. Despite claims that Ukraine can still win, recent events on the ground suggest otherwise. Russia has now claimed full control over the Luhansk region, adding to Crimea and parts of Donetsk. Fighting continues in other contested oblasts like Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro, showing Russia's growing territorial presence.Commentator Patrick Henningsen emphasizes the symbolic and strategic importance of Luhansk, where anti-Kyiv sentiment and rebellion began after the 2014 Maidan uprising. He argues that this region was heavily defended by Ukraine and NATO forces, and its loss marks a major victory and morale boost for Russia. Henningsen suggests Russia is preparing for a broader summer/fall offensive, with ample trained reserves ready to hold and stabilize newly occupied territories.The hosts criticize the failure of past diplomatic efforts—like the Minsk Agreements and the peace offer in April 2022—which could have preserved Ukrainian sovereignty over Donetsk and Luhansk in a limited form. They argue these rejections have only led to greater losses for Ukraine.Zelensky’s rhetoric is portrayed as increasingly disconnected from the ground realities, with comparisons drawn to a "bunker mentality." The West, they argue, ignores the complex history—such as NATO expansion, the Maidan coup, and discrimination against Russian-speaking Ukrainians—and pretends the war started in 2022, omitting the buildup of tensions over years. Henningsen also highlights Russia’s long-standing openness to diplomacy through the Minsk Contact Group, which remains technically active.In sum, the segment paints a grim picture for Ukraine, suggests Russia has growing momentum, and criticizes Western and Ukrainian leadership for ignoring opportunities to avoid or end the war earlier through negotiated settlements.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• We Bombed Iran But We're Still in Trouble /Lt Col Daniel Davis

  The U.S. and Israel have recently bombed Iran, targeting nuclear sites, and a ceasefire is now in place. However, there is growing concern that neither side—especially the U.S.—had a clear post-strike objective or strategy. The speaker criticizes the apparent lack of planning or foresight from U.S. leadership, particularly President Trump and his military advisors, suggesting that the strikes were carried out with a "hit now, think later" approach.Key points:No Clear Strategy: Military force was used without a well-defined end goal. The speaker emphasizes the importance of asking "and then what?" before initiating conflict, a question that seems to have been ignored.Unclear Objectives: When asked about the goal, Trump gave vague responses, suggesting uncertainty even after the bombing had occurred. This indicates a lack of planning regarding Iran’s uranium stockpiles, enrichment capabilities, or IAEA inspections.Destroyed but Unverified: Though Trump claims Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been “obliterated,” experts and inspectors suggest damage is uncertain. Underground facilities, particularly at Fordow, may still be intact—no one really knows without physical inspection.JCPOA Withdrawal Criticism: The speaker argues that the nuclear deal (JCPOA) was already effectively limiting Iran’s nuclear capability, and pulling out of it in 2018 was a strategic error. Now the U.S. is trying to enforce outcomes that were already achieved under that deal.False Premise: Iran didn’t have an active nuclear weapons program, according to both U.S. and international intelligence. The attacks, then, were based more on political narrative than verified threat.Strategic Confusion: Trump claims the strikes have set Iran’s program back by years, but IAEA officials suggest it could recover in months. The true impact remains unclear, as there’s no verified damage assessment yet.Conclusion:The central critique is that the military strikes lacked strategic clarity and may have been counterproductive, especially since the diplomatic tools that once constrained Iran’s nuclear ambitions were abandoned by the same leadership now attempting to bomb their way back to control.TranscriptSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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