Carnegie Politika Podcast

Amid mounting rumors that a new mobilization wave in Russia will follow the State Duma elections in September, there are a lot of questions over Russian military recruitment. How successful is it? How deep is the well of Russian manpower, and what are the Kremlin’s most efficient tools for tapping into it? How can independent experts outside of Russia access and credibly analyze recruitment data in a country that guards all war-related information with a veil of secrecy and censorship?

Check out Janis's Substack here.

Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, NATO’s European members have had to adjust to and navigate the new U.S. approach to defense, with the withdrawal of troops from Europe, decreased military support for Ukraine, and changing attitudes toward European security overall. Given the United States’ volatile relationships with its allies, how can European capitals reorganize and restructure among themselves? What role will the United States play in the alliance in future, and how will NATO address the Russian threat?

Following waves of Ukrainian attacks against energy infrastructure in 2024 and 2025, Russia managed to recover quickly. But the most recent drone strikes on Russian refineries were more calculated and impactful. Are they enough to finally topple the goliath of Russian oil revenues that has fed the Russian war machine? What tools does the Kremlin have to mitigate the looming fuel crisis? Will gasoline shortages prove to be the last straw that pushes the Russian public to oppose the war?

While Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan campaigned on a pro-Europe platform in the pivotal vote, the opposition wanted to see the country take a more pro-Russia course. Despite clumsy Russian attempts to influence the outcome of the elections, Pashinyan was victorious. What does his win mean for Armenia, the ongoing peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russia’s ability to project power in the South Caucasus?

The war in Ukraine has fundamentally altered the strategic environment for Russia on its western border. The conflict has expanded the line of contact with NATO and the alliance’s partners in Ukraine, and it now stretches all the way from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea. The nature of the relationship has also changed profoundly, with NATO viewing Russia as a generational threat, and Ukraine emerging as an aggrieved and highly militarily capable nation keen to settle scores with the Kremlin. Advancements in technology have also revolutionized the war and made the strategic landscape far more worrisome for Russia. How does Moscow perceive these changes? And how might future generations of the state security establishment address the challenges?

For more in-depth analysis, read Eugene Rumer’s paper, Belligerent and Beleaguered: Russia After the War with Ukraine.