Brussels Sprouts LIVE: Europe with Less U.S.: Preventing Russia Opportunistic Aggression in Europe
Despite the degradation of Moscow’s military in Ukraine, senior western officials estimate that it could reconstitute its forces within two to five years. A new CNAS report considers how a crisis in the Indo-Pacific could shape Russia’s willingness to test NATO. U.S. involvement in a major crisis in Asia would cause Washington to redeploy resources and would-be reinforcements for Europe to the Indo-Pacific, which would create meaningful gaps in NATO defenses. This, in turn, could lead Moscow to perceive a golden opportunity to accomplish its aims: divide the United States and Europe, expand its sphere of influence, and revise the security order in Europe.
To discuss the latest Russian provocations and how NATO can fill the gaps in its defenses, we are very fortunate to be joined by General (Ret.) Philip Breedlove and Admiral (Ret.) James Foggo.
General (Ret.) Philip Breedlove served as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe and Commander, U.S. European Command from 2013-2016, capping a 39-year Air Force career.
Admiral (Ret.) James Foggo served as Commander, Allied Joint Force Command Naples and Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa from 2017-2020, capping a 39-year Navy career.
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Drones over Poland with Doug Lute and Kurt Volker
In the early hours of September 10th, Polish authorities detected 19 Russian drones over Polish airspace. This incident represents a major escalation, with Poland triggering Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. At a minimum, this was an attempt by Russia to get European nations to back down from their support for Ukraine and to expose the Alliance as a paper tiger. The attack also provided the Kremlin with key insights into Poland and NATO's air defenses and its chain of response. So how do we understand what happened and what needs to happen?
To answer those very hard questions, we're very fortunate to have Doug Lute and Kurt Volker with us.
Ambassador (Ret.) Douglas Lute served as the United States Ambassador to NATO from 2013–2017.
Ambassador (Ret.) Kurt Volker served as the United States Ambassador to NATO from 2008–2009 and as the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017–2019.
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Ukraine Negotiations: Europe’s Perspective and the Next Steps
This week, we continue our assessment of the Trump-Putin and Trump-Zelensky meetings in August. European leaders can take solace in the fact that their presence at the Washington meeting means that their views are not being entirely ignored, but significant outstanding questions remain relating to how the discussions of western security guarantees for Ukraine could materialize. Now that any appearance of momentum from the meetings has petered out, we take stock of European leaders’ takeaways from the Washington meeting and where Europe goes from here in its efforts to support Ukraine.
To share their views on the future of the European security order, we are very happy to welcome Shashank Joshi and Janis Kluge.
Shashank Joshi is the Defense Editor at The Economist
Janis Kluge is Senior Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, Germany
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Ukraine Negotiations: Confusing Activity with Progress
The past week has seen a flurry of diplomacy from President Trump as he seeks to bring about a negotiated solution to Russia’s war on Ukraine. While activity has been undeniably high, what fruit has all this effort borne? Sam Charap and Angela Stent join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help make sense of a whirlwind few days and the implications for the future of Ukraine and the transatlantic relationship writ large.
Samuel Charap is Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy and a senior political scientist at RAND.
Angela Stent is Professor Emerita of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
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Bonus: The Axis of Upheaval's Emerging Military Cooperation
One of the most transformative geopolitical developments in recent years has been the increasing alignment among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the deepening economic, military, and technological ties among these four countries have resulted in a new Axis of Upheaval—united by shared opposition to a U.S.-led global order.
On July 30, CNAS hosted a virtual panel discussing the new report, The Axis of Upheaval: Gauging the Growing Military Cooperation Among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. The panel featured:
Richard Fontaine, chief executive officer at CNAS
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, senior fellow and director of the transatlantic security program at CNAS
Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The event was moderated by David McKenzie, director of communications at CNAS
Read the report!
https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/the-axis-of-upheaval
Small bites on Transatlantic Security, NATO, the EU, Russia, and all things Europe. Hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend at the Center for a New American Security.
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