Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

NFL Week 7 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Seattle took Kenneth Walker out of the game after he led the NFL in yards per carry, rushing yards, explosive rate and EPA through six weeks, and Kansas City became the only offense in the week that never reached the red zone. The Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn and the Jets, Baltimore keeps owning first halves and losing second halves, Cincinnati went from 0 first half points to 35 after the break, Sean Payton and Bo Nix beat Arizona with a quarterback as the leading rusher, the 49ers punted once in nine drives and still lost in Atlanta, Tampa Bay has faced the hardest schedule of pass defenses in the league, and Houston punted six times against the Giants. Plus Curtis on Monday Night Football, Cowboys at Eagles.
Get the free newsletter, every article we write plus free bets and player props, at sharp.football. Newsletter subscribers see the Halloween sale first.
Players and coaches discussed: Kenneth Walker, Patrick Mahomes, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Aaron Glenn, Malik Willis, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Declan Doyle, Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Raheem Morris, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, J.J. McCarthy, DeMeco Ryans, Dak Prescott, Tanner McKee, Saquon Barkley.
What You'll Learn
• Kenneth Walker through six weeks: 6.3 yards per carry, 665 rushing yards, a 14.2 percent explosive rate and +0.16 EPA per rush, all first in the NFL
• What Seattle did differently: a light box on 57 percent of his runs instead of 20, an 8 plus man box on 21 percent instead of 48
• Kansas City reached the red zone on 0 percent of its drives, scored 0.38 points per drive and gained a first down on 22 percent of its plays, all the lowest in the week
• Patrick Mahomes saw two high on 61.8 percent of dropbacks, held the ball 3 plus seconds on 44.1 percent and posted the lowest accurate throw rate in the week, 78.8 percent
• Seattle won on third down, 68.8 percent to 27.3, and is the first team since 1984 to hold its first seven opponents under 180 passing yards
• Miami ran 39 first half plays to the Jets' 18, converted 94.7 percent of its series and averaged +0.81 EPA per dropback, the best first half mark in the week
• Cincinnati's halves: 0 points and 3.1 yards per play before halftime, 35 points, 0.66 EPA per play and a 94.7 percent series conversion rate after it
• Baltimore first halves this season: 118 points and a +65 margin, both first. Second halves: 44 points and a -70 margin, second worst and last
• Bo Nix against the blitz in the first half: 3 of 8 for 9 yards, 0 percent success, -0.73 EPA per attempt
• Denver threw 20 plus air yards on 33.3 percent of attempts, the most in the week, and Nix hit 4 of 13 throws past 5 yards downfield
• The 49ers punted once on nine drives and still lost: two fumbles, a turnover on downs and two interceptions, four of them inside the Atlanta 30
• Atlanta scored on 60 percent of its drives, the best in the week
• Tampa Bay has faced the most difficult schedule of pass defenses in the NFL, five top 10 pass defenses in its last six games, and Atlanta is not one of them
• The Giants ran 22 personnel on 22 snaps, the most in the week, and J.J. McCarthy averaged 14.8 yards per attempt in the first half, the best mark in the week
• Houston's offense: 6 punts, the most in the week, 23.6 yards per drive and a first down on 22.2 percent of plays
• Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles, with Curtis on the matchup he likes
Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:15 Kenneth Walker grounded
05:30 Chiefs were dominated
09:12 Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn
12:35 Subscribe
13:10 Ravens, first half vs second half
21:09 Sean Payton and Bo Nix
25:41 49ers at Falcons
30:27 Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield's return
34:14 DeMeco Ryans' defense
38:06 Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles, with Curtis
52:18 Wrap-up
Watch the show on YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis on YouTube
Free NFL stats tools, Pass Rate Over Expected and more: sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl
Weekly, monthly and full season packages: sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages
Guests: Curtis on Monday Night Football.
Follow Us
Warren Sharp on X: @SharpFootball
Sharp Football Analysis: sharpfootballanalysis.com

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

NFL Week 7 best bets, player props and picks for Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, Rams vs Raiders, Buccaneers at Panthers, Colts vs Vikings, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, plus the Week 7 referee report and three big college football games.
Warren Sharp opens with the Rams: 2-4 after the loss to Arizona, and without Davante Adams for months. What has to change against Las Vegas? Then Brian Flores, who pressures and blitzes like no one else, as Minnesota meets Daniel Jones and the Colts, and how Carolina should handle Todd Bowles' blitz in a big NFC South game. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Ole Miss at Texas, Houston at Utah and LSU at Auburn. Rich Hribar brings three props from Buccaneers at Panthers, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, and Warren shares his advice on betting through a slump. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Packers at Lions and Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 39-16 lifetime on this show.
This week only: buy two weeks of Sharp All Access and get two weeks free with code SHOW40: sharp.football
Watch the show: youtube.com/watch?v=ucdD94UhgtQ
Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN, then 40% off your first month: oddsjam.com
What You'll Learn
• What the Rams have to change without Davante Adams
• Why Brian Flores blitzes like no one else, and what it means for the Colts
• How Carolina should attack Todd Bowles' blitz
• What decides Ole Miss at Texas, Houston at Utah and LSU at Auburn
• How the Week 7 referee crews call games, including John Hussey's record with home teams
• How to bet through a slump
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it
Chapters
00:00 Week 7 best bets and player props: the preview
01:13 Rams vs Raiders: the Rams without Davante Adams
08:19 Colts vs Vikings: Brian Flores and the blitz
10:43 Buccaneers at Panthers: beating Todd Bowles' blitz
13:18 College football with Ryan McCrystal
13:39 Ole Miss at Texas
18:15 Houston at Utah
20:20 LSU at Auburn
24:19 Rich Hribar prop 1: Buccaneers at Panthers
28:27 Rich Hribar prop 2: Giants at Texans
31:46 Rich Hribar prop 3: 49ers at Falcons
36:29 The Week 7 referee report with Joe Gibbs
37:05 Packers at Lions: the referee crew
39:53 Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday night: the referee crew
45:19 Warren's best bet of the week: Rams vs Raiders
Guests
Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal, Joe Gibbs
More Resources
Free Sharp Football newsletter with our written analysis and best bets: sharp.football
Watch the full show on YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=ucdD94UhgtQ
Follow Us
X: @SharpFootball, @SharpFBAnalysis, @LordReebs

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

NFL Week 7 preview and matchups: Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, 49ers at Falcons and Bengals at Ravens. Kenneth Walker's revenge game, Josh Jacobs' return and the run game numbers that decide each one, plus two sneaky matchups: Broncos vs Cardinals and Panthers vs Buccaneers.
4 WEEKS FOR THE PRICE OF 2: use code SHOW40 at checkout on our monthly packages, every betting recommendation plus the fantasy side in one: https://sharp.football
Kenneth Walker, Patrick Mahomes, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Steve Spagnuolo, Zach Charbonnet, Jonathan Gannon, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix Jr., Raheem Morris, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Mike Evans, Derrick Henry, Tyler Huntley, Cam Jurgens, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Jaylen Waddle, Bryce Young, Todd Bowles.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
• Why Kenneth Walker against his former team is the most important matchup of Week 7, and why neither the Chiefs run game nor the Seattle run defense has really been tested
• The Seattle streak Walker could snap on Sunday night
• Where Seattle is vulnerable to running backs in the passing game
• Patrick Mahomes' only career game against Mike Macdonald
• Sam Darnold's turnover problem and how Steve Spagnuolo's defense can force negative plays
• What Zach Charbonnet's return can and can't fix in Seattle's backfield
• What Jonathan Gannon did to Dallas, and his history against Jared Goff
• How soft Detroit's schedule of defenses has been, and why Green Bay is its biggest test yet
• What Josh Jacobs' return does to a Packers offense that has leaned on Jordan Love
• Why Atlanta's first half against Chicago was a play-calling problem, and the outside zone battle with the 49ers
• How the Falcons should use Bijan Robinson in the passing game against San Francisco
• What the 49ers did on the ground in this matchup last year, and their passing game without Mike Evans
• Derrick Henry, a reshuffled Ravens interior line and the Bengals' light boxes
• Why Denver needs to push the ball downfield with Bo Nix against Arizona
• Bryce Young against Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay blitz
CHAPTERS
00:00 Week 7: what you need to know
01:33 MATCHUP 1: Kenneth Walker vs the Seahawks run defense
08:36 Mahomes vs Mike Macdonald
09:27 How high is Seattle's floor?
11:54 Sam Darnold vs the Chiefs defense
15:47 Subscribe
16:18 MATCHUP 2: Jonathan Gannon's Packers defense vs the Lions
18:52 Jared Goff vs Jonathan Gannon
21:44 Josh Jacobs returns: the Packers offense vs Detroit
24:53 4 weeks for the price of 2: code SHOW40
26:06 MATCHUP 3: Bijan Robinson vs the 49ers run defense
30:56 Christian McCaffrey vs the Falcons run defense
35:16 Rich's Worksheets
35:59 MATCHUP 4: The Ravens run game vs the Bengals
40:10 SNEAKY: Bo Nix vs the Cardinals defense
43:37 SNEAKY: Bryce Young vs the Bucs blitz
45:45 Wrap
Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7d53eoM-1A
Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/
Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, Takeaways on Monday.
Follow Us
X: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysis
Web: sharpfootballanalysis.com

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

NFL Week 6 takeaways from the numbers. Atlanta had the best run game in the week on a per carry basis and called 12 rushes, the fewest in the week, while Michael Penix got blitzed and sacked at the second worst rates of any quarterback. The Cowboys slipped, literally, and ran the worst early down run game of any first half in the week. 2026 is the second most penalized start to a season since 2000 and delay of game flags are at an all time high. The Steelers went from first and goal with 1:38 left to fourth and goal with 1:23 left and needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay. The Giants collapsed against the Saints, and Jalen Hurts' London numbers fell off a cliff after halftime on 36 hours without sleep, before the news that he is out for the season. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football with Curtis.
Get the free newsletter: every article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up in 30 seconds at https://sharp.football
Players and coaches discussed: Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Kevin Stefanski, Tommy Rees, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Tomlin, Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels.
What you'll learn
• Atlanta's first half drives: two three and outs, a turnover on downs, one touchdown, one punt, and a 21 to 7 halftime deficit
• The Falcons ran it 12 times, the fewest in the week, with a 16.7 percent explosive rush rate, the best in the week
• Michael Penix was blitzed on 52.6 percent of dropbacks and sacked on 13.2 percent, both second worst, with a 31.6 percent bust rate, the worst
• Bijan Robinson averaged 12.8 yards on 4 first half carries and the Falcons kept throwing
• The Cowboys' first half early down runs averaged -0.37 EPA, the worst first half mark in the week, and Dallas threw 78 percent of its passes at 10 air yards or less, the most in the week
• 97 delay of game penalties through six weeks, the previous high was 75, and offenses have committed 690 flags, the most through Week 6 since at least 2000
• Offensive holding is up 58 percent since 2022
• The Steelers threw on first and goal and third and goal with 1:38 left and two Tampa Bay timeouts on the board
• Pittsburgh's first half was the worst in the week by EPA per play and EPA per dropback
• The Giants' catastrophe against New Orleans
• Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and what 36 hours without sleep did to his London numbers: 69 to 42 percent completions, +0.38 to -0.32 EPA per attempt, 7.6 to 4.1 yards per attempt
• Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis on the matchup he likes
Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:45 Atlanta's failure to launch
08:43 Cowboys issues
12:58 Penalties are out of control
18:16 Subscribe
18:42 Steelers end of game clock management
23:44 Giant catastrophe
27:57 Jalen Hurts, 36 hours with no sleep
32:21 Free newsletter
32:53 Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis
44:26 Wrap-up and a look at Week 7
Free NFL stats tools: Pass Rate Over Expected and more, free on the new stats page: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/
Get the full slate: weekly, monthly and full season packages at https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/
Guests: Curtis Hirsch
Follow Us
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SharpFootballAnalysis
X: @SharpFootball
Site: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

NFL Week 6 best bets, player props and picks for Cowboys at Packers, Bears at Falcons, Texans at Jaguars in London, Cardinals at Rams and Steelers at Buccaneers, plus the Week 6 referee report and three big college football games.
Warren Sharp opens with three keys to the Week 6 betting board: the Green Bay defense facing Dallas, the first half angle on short road favorites, and Houston in London. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana. Rich Hribar brings three props, two from Cardinals at Rams and one from Steelers at Buccaneers. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Ravens at Browns and Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 39-15 lifetime on this show.
Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN, then 40% off your first month: oddsjam.com
What You'll Learn
• Why Green Bay's defensive numbers need context, and the schedule behind them
• The first half angle on short road favorites
• How Houston should attack Jacksonville in London
• What decides Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana
• How the Week 6 referee crews call games, and which teams it helps
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it
• The free pass rate over expected and stats tools on the Sharp site
Chapters
00:00 Week 6 best bets and player props: the preview
01:07 Cowboys at Packers: Green Bay's backup QB schedule
06:05 Short road favorites: the first half angle
07:26 Texans at Jaguars in London
11:56 College football with Ryan McCrystal
12:19 Alabama at Tennessee
14:42 Notre Dame at BYU
18:22 Ohio State at Indiana
22:50 Rich Hribar prop 1: Cardinals at Rams
25:58 Rich Hribar prop 2: Cardinals at Rams
30:02 Rich Hribar prop 3: Steelers at Buccaneers
32:44 Pass rate over expected and the free stats tools
34:50 The Week 6 referee report with Joe Gibbs
35:25 Ravens at Browns: the referee crew
38:07 Cowboys at Packers on Sunday night: the referee crew
41:51 Warren's best bet of the week: Bears at Falcons
Guests
Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal, Joe Gibbs
More Resources
Free Sharp Football newsletter with our written analysis and best bets: sharp.football
Watch the show on YouTube: Warren Sharp
Follow Us
X: @SharpFootball, @SharpFBAnalysis, @LordReebs

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.